Sedona’s Black Friday forecast: Busy but tame5 min read

Chicago residents Larry Krupa, left, and Wendy Schebo walk through Uptown after getting some shopping done Nov. 17. Some stores in the Sedona area are already offering pre-Black Friday sales in preparation for the holiday rush.
Tom Hood/Larson Newspapers

In some places around the country, Black Friday means major discount sales and an almost insane rush to grab them.

Black Friday, the Friday after Thanksgiving, has become the traditional first day of Christmas shopping. Retailers often offer major discounts while some manufacturers release long-awaited new products.

The insanity around Black Friday has also led to violence. In 2006, unruly crowds were broken up outside a Virginia electronics store with tear gas. In 2009, one discount store employee in New York was trampled to death after doors opened and two men shot each other in the electronics aisle of a California toy store.

Expect a tamer Black Friday in Sedona, one most likely without fisticuffs and firearms.

“We do anticipate an uptick in sales over this weekend — primarily since many residents and visitors celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in Sedona and enjoy all that Sedona has to offer in tours, activities and of course, shopping,” said Jennifer Wesselhoff, president and CEO of the Sedona Chamber of Commerce. “It’s difficult to gauge specific days in 2009 versus 2010, as the [Arizona] Department of Revenue does not provide access to data for specific days, just months.

“This will be one of the positive effects of the city collecting [its] own sales tax. We’ll be able to do better data comparisons,” she said.

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“We do feel, though, that due to the pent-up demand for travel and increasing consumer confidence, that we are seeing an uptick in visitorship and spending, Wesselhoff said. “Consumers, though, are still holding
their pocketbooks closely, and tend to buy lower-priced goods, rather than the more luxurious items.

“We are hearing that many of our businesses are doing better this fall compared to last fall — and city sales and bed tax numbers reflect that,” she said.

Tiffany Kusmierek, department manager of a chain store in the Oak Creek Factory Outlets mall in the Village of Oak Creek said Black Friday is massive event. Her store is already offering pre-Black Friday sales, which started last week.

“The stores that are here, especially the chain stores, will be very, very busy,” Kusmierek said.

She said the economy has been steadily increasing, with traffic up 2 percent over last year and sales up about 12 percent on the year.

“We’re on an uphill, especially with finishing of [road construction on State Route] 179,” Kusmierek said.
Kusmierek said her business is split evenly between local shoppers, tourists and visitors from the Phoenix area.

She said on Black Friday, the store sees a spike in business among all three groups, but mostly in local shoppers.

“It’s a great weekend for us,” said John Davis, manager of an Uptown T-shirt shop. “We notice a lot more people in Uptown, and when there’s people, we do well.”

Davis said the Thanksgiving holiday weekend as a whole is good for his store, not Black Friday in particular.

“Friday is not significantly better than Saturday or Sunday,” he said.

“November’s not the best time of the year; October is a lot better. November tends to slow down, but the weather’s been holding out,” he said. “It’s interesting, because Uptown is not a destination for locals, so we just see lots of tourists in Uptown on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.”

“On Black Friday, we notice a bump. It’s not a tidal wave, there’s not people beating at the doors, but it’s a bump that continues for a couple weeks,” said Mike Blevins, owner of two Uptown retail stores. “There are waves in the whole cycle — like this week has been slow leading up to Black Friday — but this next bump is the one we’re waiting for. It’s one that’s noticeable.”

Blevins said there was a peak in October when more tourists come to town during the fall break, but it ended by Halloween.

“We’re up 30 percent over last year. This month has been slow, about 10 percent below last year,” he said.
When the economy first plummeted in 2008, he said there were lots of dips and peaks as consumers went from being confident to scared and confident again.

“People have gotten used to being scared; they’ve grown blasé. Now people are spending more, but it’s mainly people spending under $25,” Blevins said. “People don’t want to buy anything if they have to spend more than a $20 bill.”

Blevins said several of the local artists who sell items through his stores have opted to make less-expensive items and aim for increased volume rather than fewer, more expensive items.

Blevins said the next bump will be in the week before Christmas as tourists make last-minute purchases while in town on vacation. For his businesses, that week is actually better than Black Friday’s bump.

However, Black Friday is not universally good for all businesses. Some barely notice the day.

Dave Shapiro, owner of a shop in the Village of Oak Creek, said he doesn’t notice much difference in sales on Black Friday.

“I’ve never noticed a huge increase in business in Sedona. It just doesn’t seem to happen,” he said.

Shapiro said this year it’s been more unpredictable than normal, due to uncertainty in the economy.

“It’s been a roller coaster,” he said. “You can’t tell from one day to another what to expect.”

“Haven’t noticed anything in the past two years,” said Carter Young, co-owner of a West Sedona book and music store. “It’s been down about 35 percent over the past two years.”

Young said the economy has been hard to predict.

“The economy, it’s been up and down and up and down. You can’t borrow any money. The banks won’t loan money, the government won’t loan money. You know, America runs on credit, you can’t wane off of it overnight. We gave all that money to big banks, but not to the little guy.”

Although his bookstore caters mainly to locals, Young said his business cycles much like the rest of Sedona, peaking in spring and fall.

“October was much better. Better than the previous two years,” he said. “Our business is 70 percent local, but they haven’t got any money.”

“We’re just hanging on by our teeth,” Young said.

Christopher Fox Graham

Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rock News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been a guest contributor in Editor & Publisher magazine and featured in the LA Times, New York Post and San Francisco Chronicle. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."

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