The 2016 presidential race was supposed to be an easy one. Last year, pundits expected former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to fend off a handful of potentials to face former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a dynastic struggle between two presidential families. Late in the primary cycle, Arizona was expected to rubberstamp the presumptive nominees.
Instead, an upstart progressive challenged Clinton from the left, while the Republican field was a cacophony, suspending policy debates and rhetorical stratagems in favor of insult comedy and bad reality television.
Now that real estate mogul Donald Trump has become the presumptive nominee and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders [I-Vt.] has been mathematically eliminated, the major parties’ nominees will begin the general election battle.
Typically candidates pivot toward the center after running their primaries, but Clinton has been pulled farther to the left than expected by Sanders and must now appeal to moderates and independents as well as progressives she tried courting thanks to Sanders.
Meanwhile, pundits aren’t certain if Trump can pivot as he seems to have doubled down on attacking members of his own party, even in the hours after his last two opponents dropped out, picking fights with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan [R-Wisc.] and failing to secure the endorsements of other top Republicans.
Both presidential candidates are more disliked than other nominees in modern history. Clinton’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating is 37 percent while Trump’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating is at 53 percent. The only major candidate in recent memory more disliked than Trump is former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke, who ran for the presidency in 1992, but didn’t win a single delegate.
Downticket candidates are also fearful of this ire. “If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket, here in Arizona, with over 30 percent of the vote being the Hispanic vote, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,” U.S. Sen. John McCain [R-Ariz.] said at a closed-door fundraiser last month. “The Hispanic community is roused and angry in a way that I’ve never seen in 30 years.”
A Republican candidate favorable to immigration reform might be able to win the state’s Hispanic voters, but Trump’s statements have turned off this bloc, which is now more than a fifth of Arizona’s registered voters.
McCain is among many top Republicans who plan on skipping the GOP convention this year to avoid tainting their image with Trump associations. McCain’s staff claims his absence is common, despite the fact he has not only attended every convention for the last 30 years, but had a speaking spot at every one since 1984.
Traditionally a Republican stronghold, Arizona is predicted to be a battleground state this cycle. The last time Arizona went Democratic was in President Bill Clinton’s reelection in 1996.
The primary cycle has been such a mess this year that Americans are more invested than ever simply because it seems impossible to avoid it, much the same way the Kardashians pop up in news feeds or even newspaper editorials no matter how much we want them to go away.
Americans who are generally apolitical or uninterested are discussing the race with particular fervor, but out of fear or anger, not inspiration. I suppose anything that encourages citizens to vote can’t be all bad, but our Founding Fathers structured our nation in such a way that civic engagement would be based on our duty to participate in civil society — not on making sure the other candidate doesn’t get elected.