The recent 10-0 approval by the Yavapai County Planning & Zoning Commission of rezoning a parcel at Jacks Canyon Road and State Route 179 in the Village of Oak Creek has understandably rankled some. While our social media comments on the story were busy the day of and day after the P&Z vote, traffic on that story has dropped off precipitously, unlike other stories regarding developments, projects or issues within the city limits of Sedona.
Of note, however, is an increasing frustration directed at Yavapai County District 3 Supervisor Randy Garrison, who represents the Village of Oak Creek, Sedona and Cottonwood on the five-member board. Garrison has not yet voted on the project, which is set to go before the Yavapai County Board of Supervisors on Wednesday, Aug. 21.
Garrison could listen to his vocal constituents and vote against rezoning, rejecting his own P&Z’s recommendation. The supervisors can take more into account than the commission is allowed, including concerns that the commission is prohibited by policy from considering.
The rest of the board will be harder to sway. Three supervisors represent the Prescott side of Mingus Mountain and rarely if ever set foot in the Village of Oak Creek. They are not beholden to District 3 voters nor the 6,300 VOC residents. They represent 45,000 residents in each of their respective districts and are likely to accept the P&Z recommendation as their guide. District 2 Supervisor Thom Thurman represents Camp Verde and Cornville, but he too is not beholden to VOC voters outside his district.
Without Garrison yet on record one way or the other, some hotel rezoning opponents are now advocating for his defeat in the 2020 election. But that takes more than repeated hashtag and attacks on social media. In all likelihood, Garrison will run for reelection. Thus, a candidate or candidates would have to run against Garrison — and win.
District 3 has only had a handful of contested elections in the last 20 years mainly due to former Supervisor Chip Davis’ broad appeal to voters on both sides of the aisle and his overall approval by the Verde Valley residents he represented, so there is no current electoral infrastructure to mount a challenge at the county level, unlike at the legislative and congressional levels that nominate perennial challengers to incumbents.
Yavapai County office holders are entirely registered Republicans — even if their actual leanings and records are moderate or liberal — meaning a challenge would likely have to come in the primary. That precludes registered Democrats from voting for Garrison or his challenger, reducing potential voters by one-third.
In Arizona, independents can generally vote in either major party’s primary if they choose a Republican partisan ballot. However, a Pew Research Center study earlier this year found that the current 38% of registered independents are not truly “independent” but moderate partisans. They still tend vote as they did before eschewing their previous party’s label, be it liberal (44% of independents) or conservative (34% of independents).
With senate and congressional partisan candidates on the 2020 ballot, independents who lean left will likely want to vote for these posts in the primary and won’t choose a Republican ballot.
That being said, Garrison, then a Cottonwood city councilman, won the Republican primary by more than 62% over former Cottonwood Mayor Diane Joens for county supervisor in 2016.
Instead, if a Democrat runs against Garrison in the general election, he or she would have to convince an overwhelming number of Republicans to switch parties and vote for his challenger, which could be an improbable prospect given the demographics of Yavapai County and the overall hyperpartisan nature of the national electorate.
Nominating a candidate in either contest would requiring appealing to District 3 voters in Cottonwood, Sedona and Clarkdale on a host of issues appealing to them — merely being angry over a parcel rezoning vote more than year before simply won’t be enough.
While we encourage a vigorous electoral process and campaign season, opponents will have a uphill climb should they want to unseat him, all which still depends on his rezoning vote on Aug. 21.
Christopher Fox Graham
Managing Editor
