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Friday, November 22, 2024

Visit our website to see primary election results on Tuesday, July 30

Tuesday, July 30, is the primary election. Due to the peculiarities of our newspaper production schedule, we will be going to press on the Wednesday, July 31, edition before the polls close, but our newspapers won’t be delivered to readers and out in racks until the morning afterward.

Thus, we will not have primary election results in our July 31 print newspapers. However, we will have them online as we always do on election night at both redrocknews.com and journalaz.com. We’ll be crunching numbers on election to make sure you, our readers, have the results as soon as we get them.

We will update these poll results sometime after the polls close at 7 p.m. Yavapai and Coconino counties typically have their first results published between 8 and 9 p.m., with later results rolling in that night or the next morning as they are counted. We will update these as the night goes on, especially in close races, because 20 votes here or 10 votes there could tip the winners.

At this point, do not mail your early ballots, because they will not arrive by election day. Postmarks do not count. You can drop off your early ballots in a drop box or bring them to a voting center by 7 p.m. on Tuesday, July 30.

This is perhaps the biggest local election in the last two decades, with 40 total candidates running in Sedona, Clarkdale, Cottonwood, Camp Verde and Jerome, plus three official write-ins, one in Jerome and two in Camp Verde.

In Sedona, incumbent Scott Jablow and challenger John Martinez, a former vice mayor and councilman, are running for mayor. Incumbents Kathy Kinsella and Holli Ploog and challengers Derek Pfaff and Katherine Todd are running for three seats on council. Jessica Williamson did not run for reelection.

In Cottonwood, Ann Shaw and appointed Councilman Michael Mathews are running for the mayor’s seat, being vacated by longtime Mayor Tim Elinski. Incumbent Helaine Kurot and challengers Felicia Coates, Bob Marks, Lindsay Masten, Joy Mosley, Heather Piper White and Bill Tinnin are running for three open seats on council. Holly Grigaitis is also on the ballot, but refused to confirm whether or not she actually lives in Cornville outside the city limits.

In Camp Verde, incumbent Dee Jenkins and former mayor Charlie German are facing off again. Jenkins narrowly defeated German by 34 votes in 2020. Proving that every vote matters, if 1.15% more people had voted, the results could have differed.

In the Verde Valley’s biggest race, incumbents Jackie Baker and Jessie Murdock and challengers Terry Andrews, Brian Bolton, Kai Buchanan, Robert Foreman, Dave Inman, Jerry “Geronimo” Martin, Thomas “T.C.” Noble and Patricia Seybold are running for three open seats on the Camp Verde Town Council. Christine “Tina” Viola and Tanner Bryson, who was kicked off the mayoral ballot in April, are write-in candidates.

In Clarkdale, incumbent Robyn Prud’Homme-Bauer and Cynthia Malla are running for the mayor’s seat. Incumbent Marney Babbitt-Pierce and Debbie Hunseder and challengers Amanda Arnold and Nathan Porter are running for two open seats.

Jerome is unique. Candidates run at-large, with the person earning the most votes becoming mayor, whether they want the position or not. Incumbent Mayor Christina “Alex” Barber, Vice Mayor Jane Moore and Councilman Dr. Jack Dillenberg are running alongside challengers Issam “Izzy” Sharif and Sonia Sheffield. There are currently only four members of council, as Vice Mayor Sate Harvey resigned in March; due to the proximity of the 2024 primary, council did not select a replacement to fill Harvey’s vacancy. This will be a race among equals to determine the mayor’s seat, but write-in candidate Cole Vasquez could make the final five.

In order to avoid a runoff during the general election in November, candidates need to win at least 50% plus one vote of the total number of votes cast. In a two-person race like that for the four regular mayoral races, This is very easy to determine.

In a crowded field, the race is more complicated. To achieve 50% plus one in a race where voters can elect more than one person, the total number of votes cast is much larger number, which must be divided by three — for the total number of seats — and then by half to find the 50%, rounded up to the next whole number. So if there’s 3,000 voters, that’s 9,000 possible votes. If 900 only vote for two candidates, then it’s 8,100 total votes, making the 50% threshold 1,350 per seat. To win outright a candidate would need 1,351 votes.

A sample grid showing a breakdown for candidates. For races with three open seats, e.g., Sedona City Council, Cottonwood City Council or Camp Verde Town Council, voters can vote for up to three candidates. Candidates need to reach the 50% plus one vote threshold and be among the top three candidates. It is statistically possible, but rare, for four candidates to exceed the threshold in the three-seat race, but in such an election, only the top three would be elected. In a race for only two open seats, like Clarkdale Town Council, it is mathematically impossible for a third candidate to meet the threshold even if the top two barely exceed the threshold; the third candidate will always fall at least 4 votes short of the threshold. In a race for the single seat of mayor, e.g., mayor of Camp Verde, Sedona, Clarkdale and Cottonwood, the election will in all likelihood be decided at the primary election. There are no official write-ins for those races, but if there were, it is statistically possible for no candidate to reach the threshold, in which case the top two would head to a runoff in November.

But we won’t know the total until votes are counted, and in Sedona, we have to tally votes from both Yavapai and Coconino counties.

While the results won’t be in our July 31 edition, we’ll do the math and tabulate the results and have them on our websites as soon as we can once the county recorders have them posted.

Christopher Fox Graham

Managing Editor

Christopher Fox Graham

Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rock News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been a guest contributor in Editor & Publisher magazine and featured in the LA Times, New York Post and San Francisco Chronicle. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."

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Christopher Fox Graham
Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rock News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been a guest contributor in Editor & Publisher magazine and featured in the LA Times, New York Post and San Francisco Chronicle. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."
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