Election counting is complex when margins are close5 min read

Covering election results in Verde Valley is not as easy as one might think.

First, Sedona is split, with about 70% of residents on the Yavapai County side of the city and the other 30% on the Coconino side. The Coconino votes, while certainly fewer in number, are sometimes decisive in determining the results of a close election.

Only in very rare cases does one county, always Yavapai, conduct elections for the whole city, meaning that on election night we here at the newspaper have to combine both counties’ votes to determine results. We often have elected officials, or those supporting various ballot measures, contacting us by text and email on election night to see what numbers we have to make sure they’re reading the results correctly.

When it comes to county-only contests, like those for county supervisor, the outcomes of races are a bit easier to determine, as both county recorders post those numbers independently.

The first drop on election night consists of just the early ballots cast before Election Day that were dropped off or mailed in, and those usually only account for about one-third to one-half of the total vote. Even though these numbers don’t take into account the day-of voting, we post the results after they come in around 8 p.m. so poll watchers on our website have some understanding of how the election may go. Over the course of the night — sometimes as late as 2 a.m. — the results can articulate how the race went between day-of and early voting. Come the Wednesday morning after the election, many if not most races have been decided one way or the other.

The exception this year was the Yavapai County District 3 supervisor race.

Advertisement
Democrat Nikki Check, left, defeated Republican Lori Drake in the race for the Yavapai County District 3 seat.

Democrat Nikki Check had a lead in early votes over Republican Lori Drake, but we did not make that call, although other media outlets that don’t understand the complexities of ballot drops, tabulation and new signature verification rules jumped the gun and called her as the outright winner based on these early numbers, misinforming voters about a race that we knew would certainly tighten up. We finally made the call in favor of Check on Wednesday, Nov. 13, when the math was clear.

Check ultimately won with a comfortable 229-vote margin after previously crushing her Democratic primary opponent, incumbent Donna Michaels, by 72% to 28%.

Michaels had only defeated then-incumbent Randy Garrison in 2020 by 179 votes by organizing a last-minute push against the Verde Connect road project, gaining support from Middle Verde residents, but they were redistricted out of District 3 following the 2020 U.S. Census.

After Michaels was elected, she improperly attempted to “terminate” two Planning & Zoning commissioners in the mistaken belief that she had the right to do so. One refused to bow to her pressure and retained his seat until the end of his term; the other resigned. Michaels appointed one of her major campaign donors who happened to be opposed to a project near his home to the vacant seat, and the blatant quid pro quo gave him the authority to kill it outright, prompting the developer to pull out. As the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Michaels promised Jerome residents that they could cut in line to get vaccinations, violating both state and federal policy. The Yavapai County Board of Supervisors chairman publicly revoked her promise and rebuked her the next day.

For most of her term, Michaels maintained a lower profile than she had for her first few months, but consistently kept making promises to constituents that were never fulfilled, like speed limit changes in the Village of Oak Creek or that the county would purchase Big Park Community School.

She also attacked Northern Arizona Healthcare, which runs most of the region’s medical facilities, and was cited for a collision in a county vehicle. By the primary, voters simply had enough and wanted an alternative.

Check was the alternative, but was also a respected figure in Verde Valley politics.

In the general election, given their years of community service, either Check or Drake would have been an excellent replacement for Michaels.

Voters who knew Drake as president of the Mingus Union High School District Governing Board largely voted for her, but most of Sedona and the Village of Oak Creek went for Check. While some smaller precincts leaned towards Drake, Check had support from communities whose residents knew her as the mayor of Jerome, through her work at Yavapai College or from her previous runs for the Arizona State Legislature. Check also picked up support from business and community leaders of both parties in her race against Michaels that clearly made a difference in the general election. While the district and Yavapai County as a whole lean Republican, Check ran as a moderate Democrat and made inroads among independents.

We look forward to putting the herky-jerky tenure of Michaels’ term behind us and moving forward with a competent, responsible and responsive supervisor.

We wish Check the best and hope she builds on her election to help all the residents of District 3 and Yavapai County.

Christopher Fox Graham

Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rock News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been a guest contributor in Editor & Publisher magazine and featured in the LA Times, New York Post and San Francisco Chronicle. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."

- Advertisement -
Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rock News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been a guest contributor in Editor & Publisher magazine and featured in the LA Times, New York Post and San Francisco Chronicle. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."