With final numbers still coming in from the Yavapai County Recorder on the morning of Wednesday, Nov. 13, the Larson Newspapers Decision Desk has called the Yavapai County District 3 seat for Democrat Nikki Check, defeating Republican Lori Drake.
With 100% of votes counted on Thursday, Nov. 14, Check won by 226 votes, 12,763 to 12,537.
Check had an opening lead of more than 1,000 votes at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 5, an hour after polls closed, but those votes only counted the early ballots mailed in before election day.
Early voting has been a staple of the election process in Arizona since 1990s and there is not the same partisan lean as in other states where Democrats tend to vote early and Republicans vote on election day. More Republicans the Democrats mailed in their early ballots in Arizona.
Drake never had a lead over Check. As more votes were counted, Check’s lead over Drake dropped to 800 votes. Then, over consecutive days, Check maintained a lead of 400 votes, then 200 votes, 268 votes, 243 votes and finally 201 votes on Monday, Nov. 11. But as of late Tuesday, Nov. 12, Check’s lead had doubled to 402 as elections officials counted early ballots dropped off on election day, which statewide and countywide have been favoring Democrats.
At this point, Drake would have to earn more than 61% of these final uncounted ballots, but her gains have been modest, ranging from 40% in Sedona and Village of Oak Creek precincts to 54% in her most supportive district. While Check’s current 402-vote lead may diminish, there are simply not enough votes mathematically to change the election trajectory in Drake’s favor, leading to Larson Newspapers Decision Desk calling the race for Check on morning of Wednesday, Nov. 11.
“Big thanks to election workers who tabulated ballots through the week,” Check stated on Nov. 13. “With final results in, I am honored that the people of Yavapai County’s third district have entrusted me with the duty and responsibility that comes with being supervisor. I look forward to an engaging and productive four years ahead as I strive to deliver results for our communities. I want to acknowledge my wonderful team of committee members and volunteers that not only made this campaign possible, but also made it fun. I am very proud of the positive race that we ran and am excited to serve the people of Sedona and the Verde Valley on team Yavapai County.”
As of Wednesday night, Nov. 13, Check had won 12,700 votes to Drake’s 12,474 votes, with 99.69% of votes counted in Yavapai County and fewer than 470 votes remaining to be tabulated in the entire county.
The current Yavapai County Board of Supervisors will call a meeting to officially canvass the election and make the results official.
The Republican candidates who won their July primary races will take their seats without facing any challengers in the general election. Brooks Compton won the Republican race for District 1 with 41%, followed by Greg Mengarelli with 36%, David McNabb with 12% and Deb Pernice with 10%. In District 2, incumbent James Gregory won 58% of the vote. Chris Kuknyo, a Yavapai College Governing Board member, narrowly defeated District 4 incumbent Craig Brown by 138 votes to receive 40% of the vote in a three-way matchup with Luci Reyna Wheat. Incumbent Mary Mallory won reelection in the primary for District 5 with 70% of the vote over Richard Tupek.
The two incumbents and three newcomers will subsequently be sworn into office after the first of the year.
