Jayson Coil described it as the perfect storm.

Coil, a battalion chief with the Sedona Fire District, said the 2018 fire season could be one of the worst the area has seen in quite some time.

“The combination of drought, typical spring weather and dried summer grasses from our good monsoons [last summer] have the potential of doubling the most dangerous part of our fire season,” Coil said the day following his presentation to the SFD Governing Board on Wednesday, April 18. “This increases the danger to firefighters, the public and private property. This should be a significant concern to everyone in Sedona.”

Those conditions led SFD, as well as Yavapai and Coconino counties, to issue fire restriction last week, more than a month earlier than normal.

“It is on par with the earliest,” Coil said of the restrictions being issued in April. “It is safe to say that this is my 20th fire season in Sedona, and is only the second time we have entered restrictions this early in the year.”

Another concern of Coil’s is that in addition to Arizona, many parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico have seen drought-like conditions this year, which is expected to continue. This may result in limited outside resources from other states in the event of a large fire such as the Slide or Brins Mesa fires that scorched thousands of acres.

“The potential of large fires across the Southwest depends on many variables,” he said. “However, drought and high winds contribute some of the necessary ingredients in a catastrophic fire. On days like today, we are only one spark away from the fire occurring that we may not be able to immediately suppress, and it is likely to get worse.

“It is the responsibility of every resident and visitor to Sedona to use extreme caution and adhere to fire restrictions. Creating defensible space around your homes allows firefighters to protect your home. If you wait until there is smoke in the air to take care of your property, it may be too late.”

In his report to the board, Coil said while the 2017 monsoons were active, this winter saw below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures across the area. Since Sept. 1, Flagstaff has received 5.44 inches of precipitation, well below its normal 14.33 inches over that same time. It also received nearly a third of a its normal winter snowfall. The Prescott area since Sept. 1 has seen just under 2 inches of precipitation compared to its normal 8.2 inches.

As for Sedona, 3.62 inches of precipitation have been recorded at the Sedona Airport since Sept. 1. Coil said this is well below the 14.34-inch average. Because of these numbers for Sedona, Flagstaff and Prescott, Coil said this is expected to be a “doom and gloom year.”

“If you look forward at temperatures and precipitation, the onemonth outlook calls for a higher probability of higher-than-normal temperatures throughout Arizona and a higher probability of below normal precipitation,” he told the board. “The majority of the state is in some type of drought and we’re in exceptional drought. If you went back one year, the entire state was out of drought conditions. We had good monsoons last year but when they shut off, they really shut off, and the precipitation hasn’t come back.”

Ron Eland can be reached at 282-7795 ext. 122, or email reland@larsonnewspapers.com